According to new data from the Rhodium Group analyzed by ProPublica and The New York Times Magazine, warming temperatures and changing rainfall will drive agriculture and temperate climates northward, while sea level rise will consume coastlines and dangerous levels of humidity will swamp the Mississippi River Valley.
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In a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a team of researchers modeled the human climate niche: The regions where temperature and precipitation have been most suitable for humans to live in during the past 6,000 years.
Graphic courtesy of ProPublica
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As the climate warms, the niche could shift drastically northward. By 2070, much of the Southeast becomes less suitable and the niche shifts toward the Midwest.
Graphic courtesy of ProPublica
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In the case of extreme warming, the climate niche moves sharply toward Canada, leaving much of the lower half of the U.S. too hot or dry for the type of climate humans historically have lived in.
Graphic courtesy of ProPublica
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Heat is one of the largest drivers changing the niche of human habitability. Rhodium Group researchers estimate that under one scenario, between 2040 and 2060, extreme temperatures will become commonplace in the South and Southwest.
Graphic courtesy of ProPublica
Taken with other recent research showing the most habitable climate in North America will shift northward and the incidence of large fires will increase across the country, this suggests that the climate crisis will profoundly interrupt the way we live and farm in the U.S.
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Scan the slideshow above to see how the North American places where humans have lived for thousands of years might shift with climate migration.
