What You Need to Know From AmericanHort’s State of the Industry Update
July 26, 2026 It was just a few years ago when AmericanHort changed the focus of its Monday morning keynote presentation at Cultivate to a state of the industry update. Since then, the room where this presentation takes place has been packed, as growers and other industry members look to learn more about how the current regulatory, political, and economic environment will shape the green industry in the coming year.
The 2026 version of the state of the industry update gave many Cultivate attendees the first chance to hear from Lionel van der Walt, who took over for Ken Fisher as President and CEO of AmericanHort in May. A South Africa native, van der Walt brings more than 20 years of executive leadership experience driving growth and transformation across various sectors, including high-tech startups and international non-profit associations. However, he grew up in the farming communities of South Africa, where his family continues to own and operate farms.
“One of the goals I have is to help demystify new technology and show how it can add real value,” van der Walt remarked to the crowd. “However, technology will never replace the grower’s eye and wisdom.”
Van der Walt was followed by Matt Mika, Vice President of Advocacy and Government Affairs at AmericanHort, who offered a policy and regulatory update – no easy task given today’s turbulent political climate. His main message (which he admits was first coined by Rachel Pick, AmericanHort’s Senior Manager, Advocacy & Government Affairs) was this: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” In other words, it’s critical for everyone in the industry to make your voices heard about the issues that have the greatest impact on your future.
While midterm elections are often notable for at least one Congressional chamber flipping in terms of party leadership, Mika says no one can say for sure what will happen in November. The bad news is that, between all House seats up for grabs and 15 Senate races being decided, and the minority segment of each party having the loudest voices, it will be hard to get things done anytime soon on Capitol Hill. The good news is that AmericanHort continues to advocate on the industry’s behalf on several key issues.
The Farm Bill: There hasn’t been a new Farm Bill passed since 2018, but that may change with a bipartisan bill recently moving through the House. “This version of the bill is very strong in its focus on horticulture issues,” Mika says. “It even includes a new Specialty Crop Advisory Committee that includes horticulture.”
Labor and H-2A: The “Securing Agriculture’s Workforce Act” is a bipartisan bill designed to deliver meaningful, long-overdue reforms to H-2A, a program that horticulture and specialty crop businesses rely on to meet workforce needs. Mika urged all industry members to reach out to their lawmakers via AmericanHort’s VoterVoice tool to support the bill.
“The H-2A program hasn’t changed since 1986,” Mika said. “This bill is the best chance at reform that we’ve seen in years.”
Mika was followed by AmericanHort’s Chief Economist, Dr. Charlie Hall, for his economic update and forecast. Here are some of the main takeaways from Dr. Hall’s presentation (you can email Charlie for a copy of the PowerPoint he showed during his presentation).
- According to numbers from Hall’s YourMarketMetrics program, gross sales among growers were up year over year in 2026, but at a smaller growth rate (mostly in the 0% to 5% range) than in recent years.
- Slower sales growth. “Year-over-year sales growth has decelerated,” Hall said. “In 2023, 38% of growers reported strong sales (up more than 10%), compared to only 12% in 2026.” However, 59% of growers report gross sales up more than 25% vs. pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
- Unit sales up. In 2026, 69% of growers reported an increase in unit sales, compared to 60% in 2025 and 45% in 2024.
- Profits tied to price increases/ About 61% of growers reported net profit increases in 2026, and 41% reported year-to-year declines in net profits. “I’d argue that the growers who did not see profit increases in 2026 perhaps did not increase their prices to keep up with input cost increases,” Hall said.
- The plant consumer is back. The Garden Center Group reported a 5.3% increase in revenue among independent garden centers in 2026, the best number in the last five years. Average ticket sale sizes were also up 3.6%. At the big-box store level, live goods sales are outpacing general sales, but these stores are also seeing a shift to smaller sizes.
- The upcoming general economic outlook is a bit challenging. Even with increased disposable incomes, consumer sentiment is cratering. People have money to spend, but even as they continue to spend it, they’re acting more cautiously and often drawing down from their savings. There are some openings for the green industry to take advantage of, but Hall defines this opening as a margin-defense moment. “Hold your pricing discipline, watch labor as the new H-2A rule resets your wage floor, and don’t chase volume with discounts when confidence is this fragile.”
- Watch the cease-fire news. Inflation, which the fed projects will stay stalled at 3.6%, is largely being tied to the potential of a cease-fire in the Middle East. “Input costs will stay elevated for growers, but the cease-fire holding will the swing factor,” Hall said. (note: Hall’s presentation came in the middle of a cease-fire deal, which appears to have now dissolved)
- Input cost trends are mixed. Freight, tariffs, and fertilizer costs are flat to up, and as with the cease-fire, the closure or opening of the Strait of Hormuz is the wild card. “If it stays closed, it could mean a global recession,” Hall said.
- How you can respond. Hall offers these five take-home messages: 1) Track your trade-area analytics — not the national headlines; 2) Close the margin gap; 3) Price to your cost floor before spring 2027; 4) Manage your working capital; and 5) Defend your value proposition — lean into value and natives.
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