Top 10 Weather Events of 2007
January 16, 2008 Just like with the rest of agriculture, weather still makes or breaks our seasons, especially for spring crops. Planalytics Business Weather Intelligence presents the Top 10 Weather Events Affecting U.S. Agriculture in 2007.
Weather was in the news a lot in 2007, from the long term effects of global warming to the rationing of water in parts of the Southeast. As the most weather-impacted of all industries, agriculture captured more than its share of the headlines. Here, in no particular order, is a summary of the top ten weather stories that impacted producers and agribusiness last year as compiled by Planalytics team of business meteorologists.
California Freeze: (January 13-18, 2007)
A historic Arctic surge dropped southward from Canada. California and much of the Southwest experienced its coldest temperatures since 1998 with locations as far south as San Diego experiencing record-breaking morning temperatures in the mid-30s. Worst hit was the San Joaquin Valley. Temperatures in Los Banos, California dipped to 21°F on both January 14 and January 15. An estimated 75% of the nation’s citrus crop was destroyed by the cold weather with significant damage to some other crops such as strawberries, avocados and even fresh-cut flowers. The total damage in the area was estimated at around $1 billion dollars.
California Drought: (January- March)
After receiving record rains in the Spring of 2006 that significantly delayed planting, California and much of the Southwest experienced record drought last year. The dearth of precipitation was felt the most in Southern California during the late winter and early spring. Typically their rainy season, the first three months of the year brought less than one-tenth of an inch of rain to Los Angeles. By April, the drought was categorized as "exceptional", affecting not only crops and dairy cattle, but the agribusinesses these producers depend on.
Easter Freeze in Kansas and the Southeast (April 7-9)
Wheat growers in Kansas and the Plains saw their emerging crops freeze just as the Easter bunny was making his rounds… the effects of which weren’t fully apparent until harvest several months later. Elsewhere in the country, apple, peach, blueberry, strawberry, melon and pecan producers in the Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama were shivering in temperatures that ranged from near 20 degrees to 32 degrees. Reports varied from "total losses" in one region to a report of "30 to 80 percent loss, depending upon elevation" in another region.
Record Rains from Texas into the Corn Belt (March-May 2007)
During this critical early season period, a persistent flow from the Gulf of Mexico was responsible for well above average rains across this large area. Disturbances coming out of the Rockies got an additional boost from this warm, moist air mass. In addition, a persistent high pressure system in the Southeast kept storms form moving east. As a result, there were several instances of slow-moving storms that dumped several inches at a time. Most locations in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas had 200% to 400% of normal rainfall amounts during this period. This was frustrating for farmers looking to get crops into the ground and for those that did, many young plants were stunted or even lost due to the excessive moisture.
Record Breaking, Devastating Southeast Drought
Arguably the most devastating weather event to affect agriculture this year with many locations experiencing their driest years in over half a century. Having its genesis over the winter, the lack of rainfall intensified during the key Spring months. Early season, the worst hit areas were in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida… many locations received less than an inch of rain total through April. Eventually, rainfall deficits reached nearly a foot in these locations. Over the summer, Florida and Georgia received some relief but droughty conditions moved further north to the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Kentucky. The drought was somewhat alleviated by heavy rains at year-end, deficits still run an average of 10 to 15 inches in much of Tennessee, the Carolinas, and Georgia. Losses attributed to the drought are estimated in the billions.
Where Were the Hurricanes?
Despite many prognostications of a return to increased threats from hurricanes due to the return of La Nina in the Spring, the U.S. was generally spared any significant activity during the tropical season. While Hurricane Humberto (Category 1) and Tropical Storm Barry brought heavy rains to Texas and Florida, respectively, there were no devastating hurricanes (e.g. Katrina) that made landfall in the U.S. (Just don’t tell producers in Mexico that these events weren’t devastating.) This development was, however, a mixed blessing. Although it was certainly good news as it applied to ensuring minimal field damage and kept soybean rust spores from blowing north earlier than they did, much of the Southeast could have used several instances of copious rains normally associated with these storms.
Record August Heat Wave—Southeast U.S.
Exacerbating the challenge for farmers in the already parched Southeast was the excessive, record-breaking heat during the key growing month of August. In the last 2 weeks of the month, most locations reached heat index levels between 100 and 110 degrees F every day. In fact, all time high temperature records for August were set across eight states, (KY, TN, WV, AL, GA, MS, AR). All-time daily high temperature records were set in Atlanta (104 degrees) and Montgomery (107 degrees) and Birmingham, Alabama (106 degrees). The excessive heat forced farmers to step up irrigation efforts already stressed by the extreme drought. Combined with the lack of any precipitation during this time, the drought got to its worst levels in both magnitude and coverage.
Mid-September Freeze (Upper Midwest)
An exceptionally strong "Canadian Cooler" invaded this area producing morning lows in the 30s across parts of the eastern Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa with some areas receiving a hard freeze. This freeze event was 12 to 18 days earlier than the mean dates across the region. New record "earliest" freeze dates were established for Mason City and Sioux City, IA as well as Redwood Falls, MN. This was consistent with Planalytics early season message "6 of 7 past La Nina years have been characterized by an early season freeze in parts of the interior U.S.". There were reports of extensive soybean damage in some locations.
West Coast Catastrophes: Wildfires, Hurricane Force Winds and Floods.
Since October, much of the West Coast has seen its share of extreme weather situations that have had at least an indirect impact on agriculture. The October wildfires in California (helped by continued drought) burned over half a million acres over 4 days causing major economic disruptions and estimated losses in the billions. A particularly intense Pacific storm on December 2-3 dumped exceptionally heavy rains (5 to 10 inches on average) across Washington and Oregon. This was accompanied by winds of up to 100 mph with pockets of significant damage to apple growing regions. Widespread flooding and power outages were common. The storm eventually moved south providing California with beneficial rains — even San Diego and L.A. had 2 to 3 inches of rain.
We end where we started the year with a significant freeze, although not in California. Although not officially having occurred in 2007, we offer our final weather event of the past year:
Florida Freeze (Jan 2-3, 2008)
The New Year "rang in" with an Arctic blast that brought frigid temperatures to the entire eastern third of the U.S. This exceptionally cold air mass brought temperatures down into the teens in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama with sub-freezing temperatures as far south as Tampa and Orlando. After the Governor of Florida relaxed restrictions on transporting agricultural products, citrus and strawberry growers spent Wednesday night monitoring temperatures in their fields and running overhead irrigation systems in some places to prevent their crops from freezing. Initial reports suggest that, despite fears this event would rival the impact of the California freeze, damage estimates were not nearly as catastrophic.
Could this be the harbinger of less impactful weather in 2008? Stay tuned.
Therefore… be it resolved for 2008: We may not be able to control the weather, but we will do all we can to help our clients and their customers manage the impact of weather on their bottom lines.
SOURCE: Planalytics Business Weather Intelligence
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