How Growers Can Be Better Prepared for All Types of Extreme Weather

There has been much hype behind the El Niño climate phase that’s been developing over the last few months. Why? Because scientists, climatologists, and media outlets are pointing to conditions that could make this one of the strongest El Niño cycles on record. Along with that comes increased chances of temperature and precipitation extremes — especially for some parts of the country. Are we witnessing a “Super El Niño”? While that is still to be determined, growers are left to deal with the weather that’s right in front of them.

Fortunately, technology is getting better at predicting weather patterns from season to season and even beyond. The data mined from those tools, along with historical records, can help growers stay a step ahead of not only short-term impact weather events, but also longer-term trends.

New York City-based Arbol is a global climate risk coverage platform and financial technology company that offers solutions for businesses looking to analyze and mitigate exposure to climate risk. New analysis from Arbol found that while farmers are experiencing record temperatures, rising heat is tied to the long-term warming trend and not necessarily El Niño.

After analyzing 47 years of NOAA climate data, Arbol says that of the six U.S. agricultural regions studied, only the South Central and West showed clear effects of El Niño. And both point to wetter conditions, not extreme heat.

For example:

• In El Niño summers like the current one, the South-Central region is already seeing roughly 30% more heavy-rain days, and dry spells are about 13% shorter than the all-year norm.
• If the super El Niño holds through winter, heavy-rain days are expected to rise about 26% in the West the following year.

The second observation tracks as places like southern California often experience “atmospheric river” events during El Niño years. Heavy rainfall events plagued parts of the Golden State during El Niño years of 2023, 2015, and 1998, respectively.

I had a chance to connect with Arbol CEO Siddhartha “Sid” Jha to discuss what’s not being talked about in the news regarding El Niño and the real impacts that growers should prepare for.

For the full interview with Jha, read the original article found on our sister site, Growing Produce, here.