What Are the Chances That 2025 Will Be Another Record-Warm Year?
May 16, 2025 It’s been hot. In fact, it has been really hot across the entire globe. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the last two years were Earth’s warmest on record. How is 2025 shaping up in comparison? We’re more than a third through the year. So, let’s see where we stand when it comes to temperature trends.
The latest report from the NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information says last month was the second-warmest April on record. The “record” spans 175 years (1850-2025). For the globe as a whole, April 2025 was 2.20°F above the 20th-century baseline. NCEI reports this is just 0.13°F below the record-warm April 2024.
Despite not being far off the mark in April, climatologists are not confident that 2025 will rise up the ranks to take the top hot spot. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is only a 3% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record. This can and will fluctuate as the year progresses, of course. By the end of both 2023 and 2024, chances had become all but certain for new global heat records.
Odds might be slim right now for 2025 to be the planet’s warmest, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the chance for extreme weather events will be any less. Last year saw numerous extreme weather events, including drought, excessive heat, wildfires, freezes, flooding, hail, tornadoes, and hurricanes. Combined, these natural disasters cost U.S. farmers more than $20 billion in 2024.
Extended outlooks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are all calling for above-average activity. Currently, the sea surface temperatures are not as warm as they were a year ago. However, there is still plenty of time to heat up before the season begins to really ramp up in late August and into September.
Precipitation Patterns
Drought has been a growing concern for U.S. growers going into the spring season. In late March, the NOAA noted moderate-to-exceptional drought conditions existed across more than 40% of the Continental U.S. These conditions are predicted to continue in the Southwest and parts of the Rocky Mountains, with development likely across the central and southern Great Plains.
Beyond the U.S. and North America, the globe as a whole was much drier than the long-term average, says NCEI’s latest report. Preliminary data indicate April 2025 might have been the driest April over the last 46 years of recordkeeping.
Let’s check back in a few months to see how temperatures and precipitation are trending. In the meantime, the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1. Stay tuned as storm season kicks in.
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