What the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Might Look Like (NEW UPDATE)
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was defined by monster Hurricane Ian. So, how will the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season be remembered? Three early named storms so far (Arlene, Bret, and Cindy) didn’t amount to much. But, the season is just starting to get warmed up — literally.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Research Scientist and Climatologist Phil Klotzbach, has once again bumped up its initial forecast from April slightly and is now predicting the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season to be above average in activity. The updated CSU forecast (as of July 6) is calling for 18 named storms overall; 9 of which will turn into hurricanes; and 4 of those hurricanes being major (categories 3-5).
What’s different this year is the climate phase has shifted from La Niña — which normally produces more conducive conditions for tropical development in the Atlantic basin. However, Klotzbach and other forecasters are tracking a developing El Niño, which has the opposite effect of La Niña on the tropics.
A portion of the newly updated CSU 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast summary reads: “The tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Niño conditions. However, the intensity of the El Niño for the remainder of the hurricane season remains unclear, although a moderate to strong event seems relatively likely. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear. However, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are now at record levels, so despite the high potential for an El Niño, the impacts on tropical Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear may not be as strong as is typically experienced given the extremely warm Atlantic. The continued anomalous warming of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is the primary reason for the increase in our forecast numbers with this update.”
The CSU forecast also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall. Here is what they are now predicting for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season:
- 50% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
- 25% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880-2020 is 21%)
- 32% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880-2020 is 27%)
- 54% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%)
For more details about the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, continue reading at GrowingProduce.com.
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