A First Look at the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
April 22, 2026 Did you know the average date for the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 20? This is based on 30 years of climate data gathered by NOAA. A multitude of data tools are used by climatologists to predict weather patterns. But just because the numbers are trending one way doesn’t necessarily mean it will verify year to year. Welcome to the world of weather forecasting and the Atlantic hurricane season pre-season. The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1. But now is the time when long-range predictions are revealed. So, what can we expect for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season? The first outlooks are in.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University (CSU) have compiled and released their initial 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast. Here’s how the numbers break down.
- Named Storms: 13 vs. (30-year historical average: 14.4)
- Hurricanes: 6 vs. (30-year historical average: 7)
- Major Hurricanes: 2 vs. (30-year historical average: 3.2)
As you can see, the predictions are below average. But why?
According to the CSU forecast summary: “Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal, but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Last season, La Niña was in control, which resulted in above-average predictions. Typically, La Niña means more tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to more conducive conditions. El Niño normally results in the opposite — less tropical activity.
In addition to forecasting the number of storms, CSU’s outlook includes the probability of hurricane landfall. Here is what they are seeing now:
- 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%).
- 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (average from 1880-2020 is 21%).
- 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, TX (average from 1880-2020 is 27%).
- 35% for the Caribbean (average from 1880-2020 is 47%).
“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2023 seasons,” says Klotzbach. “Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average. While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.”
Translation: It’s early. Don’t turn your back on the tropics. Good case in point: While the 2023 hurricane season was an El Niño year, it finished as the fourth most active season since recordkeeping. And during that season, Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend area, causing significant flood and wind damage. All it takes is one.
While CSU is one of the first to throw hurricane predictions out there every year, others also provide educated guesses. One is AccuWeather, which uses a range of numbers. For this season, forecasters from AccuWeather are predicting 11 to 16 named storms; 4 to 7 hurricanes; 2 to 4 of those being major.
The National Hurricane Center also releases a long-range forecast, but does so closer to the official beginning of hurricane season.
This piece was originally featured on our sister site, Growing Produce. For more information on the upcoming hurricane season, as well as a look at how accurate long-range hurricane forecasts were in 2025, click here to read the original article.
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