Hurricane Season 2022 Has Arrived! Here’s What You Should Expect
June 3, 2022 The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season isn’t until June 1. But talk about the upcoming campaign starts to swirl well in advance with the release of the season’s initial outlooks. For several seasons running, above-average activity has kept folks in hurricane-prone areas on their toes and – unfortunately in some cases – left many cleaning up after storm strikes. So, how is 2022 shaping up? The experts have their take.
Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project, led by Research Scientist and Climatologist Phil Klotzbach, is anticipating the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be busy once again. The CSU forecast is calling for 20 named storms; 10 of which will turn into hurricanes; and 5 of those hurricanes being major (categories 3-5).
Probabilities for at least one major hurricane to make landfall in the following areas also are worth noting:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 76% (average for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 51% (average for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 50% (average for last century is 30%)
Current presence of the La Niña climate phase is a main factor for another active outlook. A portion of the CSU report reads as follows: “Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal.”
La Niña normally produces more conducive conditions for tropical development in the Atlantic basin – less wind shear and warmer water surface temperatures, while the Eastern Pacific experiences unusually cooler waters. The opposite climate phase (El Niño) usually is responsible for squelching tropical activity in the Atlantic.
In 2021, 21 named storms formed, with seven hurricanes developing (four major). Hurricane Ida, which struck the Louisiana coastline in August, made the most headlines last year for its destructive nature.
NOAA recently entered the ring with its official extended 2022 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Similar to others released earlier, the organization is calling for another “above-normal” storm season. Scientists are forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. According to NOAA, it provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
If the early 2022 forecasts come to fruition, it will represent the seventh straight season Atlantic hurricane season with above-normal numbers. Will the streak continue in 2022?
For more analysis, continue reading at GrowingProduce.com.
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