Is a Super El Niño on the Way?
June 5, 2026 There’s no doubt you’ve heard of El Niño and La Niña. But what about a “Super El Niño”?
The opposing climate phase siblings (El Niño and La Niña) are bantered about every year when it comes to predicting global temperature, precipitation, and tropical activity for a given season. NOAA notes, “the pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, bringing predictable changes in ocean temperature and disrupting the normal wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics.”
This year is shaping up differently, though. Scientists are warning that a Super El Niño might be in the making. This could mean even bigger extremes in weather that could affect millions of people and impact livelihoods like agriculture.
AgroClimate, which references the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, says there is a 92% chance El Niño will be the prevailing climate phase for the next three months. NOAA scientists believe this could be the case all the way through February 2027.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) tracked El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions through mid-May. But sea surface temperature anomalies have increased across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during the spring. This is a tell-tale sign of El Niño emergence.
CPC’s forecast indicates sea surface temperatures increasing through the summer and reaching +1.5°C (strong El Niño threshold) by the September-October-November window. “By the late fall and early winter (October-November-December), there is near a 2 in 3 chance of a strong El Niño.”
The last El Niño was inn 2023, going into early 2024. It was considered a moderate event. The last “strong” El Niño occurred in 2015, going into spring 2016. Before that, 1997-1998 set the bar for strong El Niño events.
So, what does all this mean for now? NOAA’s June-July-August Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks were recently released. Check out the graphics below to see which parts of the U.S. are likely to see extremes.
Photo: NOAA
Photo: NOAA
NOAA issues updated 90-day outlooks every month. The next update (July-August-September) is scheduled to be released on June 18.
El Niño and What It Could Mean for Hurricane Season
Early predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are for a slightly below-average campaign. Why? El Niño.
An El Niño event normally means less tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to less conducive conditions, including wind shear. This upper-air occurrence tears apart developing storms.
Colorado State University Climatologist Phil Klotzbach is closely monitoring the potential for a moderate to strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. “Sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” he notes in the CSU hurricane season forecast summary. “We anticipate El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving increased levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear.”
Despite El Niño being associated with less active hurricane seasons, storms have found a way to defy the odds. For example: The 2023 hurricane season was an El Niño year and yet it finished as the fourth most active season since recordkeeping. And during that season, major Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend area, causing significant flood and wind damage.
Other notable hurricanes that made an impact during El Niño years: Florence and Michael (2018); as well as four hurricanes that crisscrossed Florida in six weeks during the 2004 season (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). However, not all El Niño events are created equal.
This piece was originally featured on our sister site, Growing Produce. For more information on the possibility of a strong El Niño and updates on the current Atlantic hurricane season, running from June 1 to Nov. 30, click here to read the original article.
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