Gearing Up For Spring
February 3, 2009 
We checked in with several young plant growers to see how spring sales were shaping up and what the trends were based on plug and liner sales. The late order trend had been progressing the last few years and was considerably worse this year. Peak weeks are shifting later. Some late orders had to be turned away because it was impossible to make up time for missed sow and stick dates. While production is primarily order driven, more young plant growers are producing extra of the most popular items on speculation. Here is the spring forecast through the eyes of these growers:
What is your strategy and mindset heading into the spring season?
Juan St. Amant, The Plug Connection, Vista, Calif.: “We have to be more efficient in our production. We need to lower our costs where we can and use our purchasing power wisely. There will be additional cost increases and we will need to manage their impact as best we can.”
Arie van Vugt, Plainview Growers, Pompton Plains, N.J.: “We are filling our greenhouse to the max. If you don’t have it, you can’t sell it.”
Danny Takao, Takao Nursery, Fresno, Calif.: “We have been monitoring Wall Street to see when the economy and housing bottoms to prepare for the upswing. Until we are comfortable with the economy, we are being very cautious and staying lean to be there when the economy starts to go again.”
Doug Cole, D.S. Cole Growers, Loudon, N.H.: “We will keep producing what we feel the buyers are asking for, not just product that we like. I feel the wholesale growers who have full supply will be in good shape, since many retail growers have cut back in their production. When it comes time to fill their benches, the garden centers will be looking for good product.”
If you grow extra on speculation, which varieties and sizes will you produce?
St. Amant: “There has been a lot of talk about growers wanting to control their costs more this season, so we see that as meaning a reduction in premium annuals in favor of lower cost alternatives. While we will have vegetative liners grown on spec, a larger percentage of our spec crops will be seed items.”
Van Vugt: “We’re growing a larger plug so customers can have a faster turn. We’re only growing the top six most popular varieties in each category.”
Cole: “This is the year of meat and potatoes. We saw this trend start last year. Growers always want to try new products, but our variety choices became huge in recent years. Growers are sorting through some genera that don’t sell as well as they first did. They are also cutting back on genera that doesn’t perform as well all summer. There are a number of items that are great in the spring but don’t stand up once the heat hits. The bottom line is that we are paying more attention to those varieties that are truly in demand.”
Can 2009 be a good year for growers?
Van Vugt: “2009 can be a good year, but we are preparing by cutting cost and pushing sales as hard as possible. Many growers are cutting back by 5-10 percent, so we are taking this as an opportunity to sell more finished product in the spring.”
Takao: “It’s hard to predict what will happen in the gardening segment of the economy. People will be staying home and not purchasing expensive items. Will that translate into fixing up their homes and gardening more? That will be determined by how well our retail sector can show consumers the value and benefits of using our plants to enhance their lives. As bad as the economy is, I think there will be some good opportunities for forward-thinking garden centers.”
What will be the greater determining factor, the weather or the economy?
Bobby Barnitz, Bob’s Market & Greenhouses, Mason, W.Va.: “It appears most customers are on the conservative side, which may be of benefit if it is an average season weather wise. If the weather is great, they may be short on product. There may be problems in areas of the country if the weather turns out to not be good. I feel the weather will be the biggest contributing factor to what kind of season our industry will face in ’09. While I say that, we have not faced an economic situation such as the one we face at the moment and it may still have an impact on sales in certain areas of the country.”
Takao: “Weather is always the number one factor but we have to deal with that all the time. My wife and I went to some garden centers here in Fresno and they looked real tired, not much inspiration for the consumer. If there are some garden center retailers reading this, I advise you to have someone go through your garden center before spring and give you an honest assessment. The economy might not be the reason for low sales.
“I think, too, when the economy gets bad, we all go back to basics–getting the family together and doing more things together. One of the mottos for our industry should be, ‘Bring the family back together again … in the garden.’ As with most situations, those who can think and see clearly through the haze will see opportunities. Those who don’t will keep complaining and continue to go in circles.”
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