What Does 2021 Have in Store for Produce Growers?
Note: the article below was written by Carol Miller, Editor of American Vegetable Grower magazine.
This is traditionally the time of year to reflect on how your business is going. You assess how your crops performed and make needed adjustments for the coming year.
But this hasn’t been an ordinary year. You need more than yield, sales, and input costs reports to plan your 2021 season.
Here are a couple things I think you need to consider:
Grocery Store Demand
We all know how this sector performed in 2020. Early in the pandemic, sales soared, and retailers narrowed their produce selection. As the first shutdown orders lifted, sales remained robust and store buyers began carrying their less-common vegetables again.
All published projections show vegetable sales in 2020 will be historic.
What can you expect in 2021? Let’s say vaccines cause the pandemic to fade by midyear. Will sales return to pre-pandemic levels as stir-crazy Americans rush out to restaurants?
Unlikely.
The U.S. underwent a rare social reset in 2020. Those who never cooked before began experimenting with baking bread and preparing full meals for their families. Americans spent months learning how to be at home and spend time around the dinner table. They’re not going to ditch all those new skills and habits.
The big question will be to what extent Americans go back to their old habits after the pandemic eases.
Most experts say sales in 2021 will likely weaken compared to 2020, yet they’ll still be very high. The marketing firm Statista projects that vegetable grocery sales will fall 0.4% in 2021. But that’s after a 9.4% jump in 2020.
Let’s put that into dollars. Statista reports vegetable sales came in at $76 billion in 2019. Its 2021 forecast? $82.9 billion.
Continue reading at GrowingProduce.com.
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