Is Another Hectic Hurricane Season on the Way?

Along with all the other unprecedented chaos experienced during 2020, the Atlantic hurricane season obliged with a record-setting campaign that featured 30 named storms, 13 of which turned into a hurricane. And six of those were of the major variety. So, what does 2021 hold? Climatologist Phil Klotzbach and his Tropical Meteorology Project team at Colorado State University (CSU) have released their extended range forecast.

The CSU researchers are predicting another above-average Atlantic hurricane season with 17 named storms, eight of those to become hurricanes, and four to reach major hurricane strength.

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How does that compare to normal? The team’s prediction for 2021 is about 140% of the average season. By comparison, 2020’s hurricane activity was about 170% of the average campaign.


Related Content: How to Prepare Your Greenhouse for Hurricane Season


According to Klotzbach, the likely absence of El Niño is a primary factor for their prediction. In addition, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, while subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than their long-term average values. The warmer subtropical Atlantic also favors an active Atlantic hurricane season.

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In the report, Klotzbach notes that so far, the 2021 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2017. “All of our analog seasons had above-average Atlantic hurricane activity, with 1996 and 2017 being extremely active seasons.”

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