What the American Dream Warning Means for the Green Industry

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorganChase, has been sounding the same alarm since the spring: the American Dream is “slipping out of reach for too many people.” This month, JPMorganChase has released a new “Powering 10 Million Small Businesses” report based on a survey of business owners, which puts hard numbers behind his warning.

What led Mr. Dimon to say that? Interest rates? Affordability? Energy? Labor? Tariffs? All of the above? No. It is the “Silver Tsunami.” Chase’s survey found that while 70% of business owners have started considering succession, just 8% have reached an advanced stage of planning.

Given the levels of private and family ownership in horticulture, this isn’t a Wall Street story. It’s a grower and garden retailer story that could profoundly shape our industry’s future. For most owners, the dream was never just about building the business. It was about what the business would one day make possible for them and their families: a secure retirement, a legacy to pass on, and a lifetime of hard work converted into lasting freedom. But that final chapter happens only if the value can be harvested — and for most owners, it won’t.

How many times have we seen this in our own industry? A founder ages toward retirement without a transition plan, and the outcome is not a sale, but a wind-down or liquidation. How many once-great growing operations and garden retailers are now gone because the owner never planned an endgame? How many jobs have been lost? How many good people have left the industry as a result?

All of this is unfolding as the largest transfer of business ownership in American history is underway. The Exit Planning Institute (EPI) estimates that 73% of privately held U.S. businesses hope to transition in the next decade, representing about $14 trillion in enterprise value. Alarmingly, very few owners are ready.

The Silver Tsunami Demographic Reality

“Silver Tsunami” describes the massive wave of exits already underway. Baby Boomers (now 62–80 years old) make up only about 20% of the population, yet EPI reports they still own 51% of U.S. small businesses. BEST PivotPoint’s recent “State of Succession and Exit Planning in the Horticulture Industry” survey report shows just how exposed our sector is:

• 76% of respondents have owned their business for more than 20 years.
• 29% are 60–65 years old.
• 31% are over 65.

We are a Boomer-heavy industry sitting squarely in the wave. Pair this with EPI’s finding that only 20–30% of businesses that go to market actually sell, leaving up to 80% unable to harvest their wealth, and the problem comes into focus.

Exit Paralysis: The Real Risk

Here’s the insight that Chase’s data, EPI’s research, and our own survey all keep uncovering: the dysfunction isn’t failing businesses; it’s owners failing to plan. It is understandable. Succession planning can feel overwhelming, and it can breed paralysis or even denial. Our survey shows the pattern clearly:

• 95% feel that succession and exit planning are important.
• 52% of owners in our industry have no exit strategy.
• 47% have neither a business valuation nor a land appraisal.
• 61% don’t have a firm estimate of current business value, or can’t answer “What is your number?”
• 17% feel “not prepared at all” to exit.

Owners know what matters. They just aren’t doing it. One in four has changed their exit timing because of the current environment, and most are pushing it further out.

The Cost of Waiting Is Regret

Successful exit planning rests on three legs: business, personal, and financial. All three must be addressed. One of EPI’s most sobering findings is that 75% of owners who sell profoundly regret it within a year. This often happens because they sold a business that depended mostly on them, at a time they didn’t choose, and they weren’t prepared. They didn’t prepare the business.

The regret compounds when there’s no plan for life after the business. Many owners drift into boredom and second-guessing because their identity, sense of purpose, self-worth, and community were tied to the company. They didn’t prepare personally.

Roughly 80% of a typical owner’s net worth is tied up in the business until it’s sold. For growers who own their own land, the percentage is even higher. You can’t know whether a sale will fund the life you want (we call this your “Freedom Point”) if you’ve never run the numbers. They didn’t prepare financially.

What’s Holding Boomer Growers Back?

Mostly three things: emotions, owner dependency, and no successor. As a grower or garden retailer, you’re attached to your business and proud of “your baby,” as you should be. On many of our first client visits, we start at “Greenhouse #1,” usually the smallest structure on the property, the place where it all began. Then we step back and gaze out at how the operation has grown, sometimes 10 to 20 times or more over three decades. It’s the green industry’s defining refrain: the work is a way of life, not just a job.

Emotion’s close cousin, owner dependency, also holds planning back. In our survey, three out of four owners say the business would suffer if they were away for three months or more. “I’m too busy running the business” is a trap, and the cure is to build a strong management team and start grooming successors now. Family succession can be harder than a sale: 54% say no family members are interested in taking it over, and of the 46% with interested family members, 49% haven’t started the conversation.

What to Do?

You don’t need everything solved overnight. Done well, succession and exit planning typically takes three to five years. But you do need to start, and here are three practical steps to move from paralysis to progress:

1. Take a Complimentary Exit Assessment. It takes about 15 minutes, and you will receive a summary report by email. The report ranks your overall preparedness for transition in Finance, Planning, Profit/Revenue, and Operations (no confidential information is needed). Most importantly, it turns “someday” into a meaningful starting point.
2. Get a business valuation and commercial real estate appraisal. This is an excellent starting point, and it was one of the biggest gaps in our survey. After all, you can’t plan toward a finish line you can’t see.
3. Talk to an advisor and build your bench. A CPA, an attorney, and a financial planner, all quarterbacked by a Certified Exit Planning Advisor (CEPA). Only 14% of our survey respondents named a financial planner as an exit partner, and that number should be far higher, especially given how much financial readiness matters.

Bonus Step: Start the conversation now, even if your exit is years away.

Don’t Let the Dream Slip Out of Reach

As Founding Father Ben Franklin famously put it, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.” The Silver Tsunami is here, whether owners plan for it or not, but the outcome isn’t fixed. You have far more power over your future than you think.

Succession and exit planning isn’t easy, and it shouldn’t be handled in a silo. Work with advisors who do this for a living. Done well, it leads to a higher valuation, a smoother transition, and fewer conflicts across the family and management team. Ultimately, you want to leave a business that thrives beyond its founder, while giving yourself the freedom to write a new chapter in your story.

Here’s to keeping your dream, and the American Dream, alive and thriving.