Underrated (And Overrated) Trends in Greenhouse Design, and Future Market Shifts
July 2, 2026 Greenhouse manufacturers and component suppliers are navigating many of the same pressures as growers. From tighter margins and energy costs to shifting expectations around automation and integration, the forces shaping plant production are shipping the structures and systems behind it.
To better understand where the market is headed, Greenhouse Grower surveyed members of the National Greenhouse Manufacturers Association (NGMA), whose products range from greenhouse structures and coverings to controls and lighting systems. Here’s Part 8, where we cover underrated and overrated trends in greenhouse technology, and where suppliers predict future market shifts. You can find previous parts of the series, which covered disconnects to overcome, standard vs custom projects, geopolitical issues, capital investment trends, energy costs, grower pain points, and overall market challenges and opportunities, here.
What is the most underrated or overrated trend in controlled environment agriculture right now?
- “Wireless sensors are overrated. What is underrated might be climate trend analysis, which should be used more to determine yield information, health/volume/quality, etc.”
- “Building greenhouses that match crop requirements to the climate is a trend that deserves more attention. Vertical farms are the most overrated trend.”
- “For me, it’s certain technologies or terminologies like VPD or crop steering. These are things that have been used for years but are being touted as new.”
- “I think the most overrated trend is the assumption that scaling technology automatically guarantees profitability. The most underrated aspect is operational efficiency at the structural level — how materials, design, and environmental control systems work together. That’s where long-term gains are really made.”
- “One overrated trend has been the idea that highly complex, fully automated facilities are always the best solution. In many cases, simpler, well-designed greenhouse systems with good environmental control and irrigation automation provide a better return on investment. Data collection is also increasing rapidly, but many growers are still figuring out how to use that data effectively. There is growing interest in AI to help interpret data and optimize growing, but that approach works best in large monoculture operations with consistent crops and growing conditions. Many smaller growers produce a wide variety of crops, which makes standardized crop models and AI optimization more difficult.”
- “The most underrated would probably be fertigation and irrigation.”
- “AI is the most overrated; it’s just based on factual information that the systems adjust to based on previous inputs.”
- “Overrated: Pure fixture efficacy. A super-efficient light is useless if it is the wrong spectrum for the plant. Underrated: Collaborating with companies who know how to operate greenhouses.”
- “Most overrated would be vertical farming in my opinion. It’s not perfected and too expensive for the return the given product can provide. The most underrated might be veggie production in smaller-scale local greenhouses. This is also tough to find ROI and outlets for the product. Grocery stores seem full of imported veggies from Canada and Central America. Knowing the producers, it’s easy for me to recognize. But it doesn’t help that U.S.-based producers seem to continually fail once investor money is gone, and acquisitions are in the news frequently.”
What major shifts do you expect in greenhouse design or technology over the next three to five years?
- “More automation, AI integration, and more robotics.”
- “More customization.”
- “Very little!”
- “AI is going to play a major role in the control of greenhouses.”
- “The biggest shift will be toward fully integrated systems that combine smart design, advanced materials, and data-driven decision-making. AI will indeed be the key differentiator.”
- “Over the next three to five years, I expect greenhouse design and technology to focus more on energy efficiency, water management, automation, and system integration between climate, irrigation, and lighting, which is already being driven in part by building codes and operating costs. We will also see increased use of data, AI, and robotics to help reduce labor and improve operational efficiency. However, the industry will continue to balance new technology with cost, and most growers will prioritize practical, reliable systems that provide a clear return on investment.”
- “Hopefully institutions and the USDA will invest in research facilities in a concerted fashion.”
- “More efficiency and better access with ease of access and control.”
- “The greenhouse is moving toward being software-defined. It will stop being just a building and start acting like a programmable entity. For example, automatic balancing of power costs against crop value in real-time to make sure the grower is always making the most profit possible.”
- “This space seems resistant to change and evolution. ‘We’ve been doing the same thing for 70 years’ sometimes works, but evolution should happen. Automation should be a big push, but costly ROI again comes into play. Solar, turbine power, and geothermal are all good, not for the masses, but for the few with capital.”
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