Society of American Florists Urges Patience Amid Market Fluctuations
SAF Chief Economist Charlie Hall, Ph.D. speaking at SAF Miami 2024 | Society of American Florists
The stock market crash on Monday, Aug. 5, 2024, as detailed by Business Insider, shouldn’t worry floral businesses too much, according to the Society of American Florists’ Chief Economist Charlie Hall, Ph.D.
“There have been plenty of circumstances like this — like we’ve seen over the last week,” says Hall during his keynote address at SAF Miami 2024, SAF’s annual convention, which kicked off on Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024. “The stock market is not the real economy. The stock market goes up and it goes down based on expectations.”
Keeping Perspective in an Instable Market
Today’s economic environment requires a similar long-term perspective, Hall tells an audience of about 490 people.
Hall, who also recently gave a speech on the state of the green industry economy at Cultivate’24 in Columbus, OH, notes that while short-term economic data — such as the recent increase in job claims and a lower-than-expected jobs report — might suggest instability, these metrics alone do not capture the overall economic trajectory. Instead, Hall urges viewers to consider longer-term trends, highlighting that U.S. GDP growth has remained relatively steady despite various economic shocks, including the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, he points out that the Federal Reserve isn’t panicking. Despite recent volatility in job reports and market performance, the Fed’s decisions to raise or lower interest rates are driven by broader economic conditions rather than immediate market reactions.
Floral business owners should also make strategic business decisions based on long-term business sales patterns. For instance, Hall references data from SAF’s Economic Outlook survey that shows flower sales have been up since 2019, even though this year many respondents reported that their sales were down over last year.
“If you look at year-over-year sales and you try to make strategic decisions that are going to impact the long-term nature of your business, you’re in trouble,” says Hall. “Do not fall to that. Instead, you’ve got to know enough to know the difference and see your performance over time and be measuring that historically.”
Strategies for Stabilizing and Improving Sales
In her State of the Industry Address, SAF CEO Kate Penn shares strategies that successful florists are using to bolster sales:
- Providing great-quality flowers that last
- Using superb customer service as a competitive advantage
- Building a strong team that feels appreciated
- Embracing change
“There’s an openness and an embracing of change among some people experiencing growth,” says Penn. “They are trying new things, seeking out new partners, and making shifts in their staffing.”
All in an effort to capture a larger share of consumers’ wallets — consumers who, Hall says, are still spending.
Despite recent economic uncertainties, consumer spending on discretionary items — such as flowers and recreational goods — continues to demonstrate a capacity for growth.
Planning for Future Economic Trends and Events
Is a recession still looming? Hall acknowledges that while some economic models predict a heightened probability of recession, these forecasts should be interpreted with caution. Historical patterns and current economic fundamentals suggest that, despite some risks, the economy remains on a steady path of recovery and growth.
His advice? Leverage customer analytics, refine your value propositions, and maintain a focus on the health and well-being benefits of flowers, a key area where consumers are likely to continue spending.
“We will always pay you for something that enhances their health and well-being,” says Hall. ”And we’re all about that.”
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